Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.458324 0.531836 0.612723 0.708241 0.817871 0.939675 1.085187
2025-05-11 0.335929 0.435131 0.555966 0.713568 0.913273 1.157451 1.478203
2025-05-18 0.266061 0.373139 0.513453 0.709913 0.976916 1.326065 1.816074
2025-05-25 0.217541 0.325826 0.476527 0.700156 1.021915 1.466168 2.123753
2025-06-01 0.183373 0.290910 0.448633 0.694782 1.066803 1.604989 2.438713
2025-06-08 0.152846 0.255593 0.413681 0.671970 1.080101 1.695863 2.689527
2025-06-15 0.142583 0.249707 0.421583 0.713840 1.193834 1.944807 3.200068
2025-06-22 0.121587 0.222853 0.392155 0.691513 1.202041 2.029474 3.460500
2025-06-29 0.104474 0.199925 0.365833 0.670194 1.207927 2.108689 3.716844
2025-07-06 0.090908 0.181240 0.344144 0.653571 1.218746 2.195246 3.991243
2025-07-13 0.083626 0.173121 0.340060 0.667397 1.283691 2.378886 4.448229
2025-07-20 0.079864 0.171212 0.347021 0.702027 1.389332 2.642672 5.070032
2025-07-27 0.074275 0.165103 0.345657 0.721454 1.470201 2.872226 5.657038
2025-08-03 0.067848 0.156391 0.338186 0.728167 1.527666 3.064552 6.194521
2025-08-10 0.061222 0.146239 0.326415 0.724502 1.563636 3.218418 6.671218
2025-08-17 0.054866 0.135732 0.312517 0.714556 1.585330 3.345685 7.106285
2025-08-24 0.049642 0.127040 0.301394 0.709077 1.615367 3.491601 7.590944
2025-08-31 0.043734 0.115830 0.283241 0.685817 1.604510 3.552348 7.905132
2025-09-07 0.042953 0.117098 0.293709 0.728508 1.742715 3.936303 8.931137
2025-09-14 0.038069 0.107254 0.276880 0.705743 1.731166 3.999336 9.274209
2025-09-21 0.033814 0.098397 0.261291 0.684006 1.719445 4.060385 9.617447
2025-09-28 0.030295 0.090978 0.248315 0.667056 1.717030 4.141473 10.011823
2025-10-05 0.028666 0.088562 0.247757 0.681154 1.790858 4.401978 10.836909